MOGADISHU, Aug. 3 (Xinhua) -- The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said Monday that it is rolling out anticipatory actions in Somalia to mitigate the expected adverse climate impacts of the upcoming rainy season, which could be compounded by El Nino.
The UN agency said there is a greater than 90 percent probability of El Nino conditions developing from mid-2026 and intensifying during the October-December Deyr season.
"Current projections indicate that the 2026 El Nino could reach similar or higher levels of severity," FAO said in a statement.
According to FAO, this is expected to trigger heavy rainfall, rising river levels, and a severe risk of flooding, particularly along the Juba and Shabelle river basins, putting the lives of more than 274,000 people living along the Shabelle River floodplain at risk.
The anticipatory actions will be implemented ahead of the projected Deyr flooding season (October-December), FAO said, noting that through improved risk forecasting, early warning systems, and household preparedness, vulnerable communities will be better equipped to withstand floods.
Flood mitigation activities, including debris clearance around the Sabuun Barrage, will benefit about 269,000 people, while nearly 38,000 of the most vulnerable individuals will receive forecast-based anticipatory cash assistance to support their immediate needs and safe relocation.
According to FAO, Somalia remains one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, facing recurring and overlapping cycles of drought and flooding that erode livelihoods, displace populations, and undermine food security.
Between April and June, an estimated six million people are projected to face crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, including 1.9 million facing emergency conditions.
FAO noted that prolonged conflict, economic pressures, reduced humanitarian funding, and access constraints have severely limited the delivery of critical assistance.
It also said rising global fuel costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis are driving up transport expenses and disrupting supply chains in a country heavily reliant on food imports. ■